NEW YORK (TheStreet ) -- Gold prices went nowhere fast Monday as physical buying supported prices but technical selling prevented any rallies.
Gold for April delivery
settled down 80 cents to $1,348.20 an ounce at the Comex division of the
New York Mercantile Exchange on extremely low volume. The gold price
Monday has traded as high as $1,354.50 and as low as $1,344.10. The spot
gold price was up $1.20, according to Kitco's gold index.
The
U.S. dollar index was adding 0.01% at
$78.06 while the euro was slipping 0.08% at $1.35 vs. the dollar.
Gold is still trading in no
man's land with the metal searching for a catalyst. With investor
attention on stocks and multiple M&A deals, gold is having a hard time
finding direction.
The metal has seemed to
stem its violent January selloff, which brought prices down to $1,307
and close to the $1,300 support level. Friday's disappointing jobs
number did little to help gold despite the fact that it ensured no rate
hike in the near future.
"Trade will likely remain
volatile as investors react to Friday's jobs data," says James Moore,
research analyst at fastmarkets.com, "Gold ... has found good
support around $1,344 but requires a break above the 100-day moving
average, $1,362.20, to avoid another round of stale long liquidation."
An interest rate hike might
be in the future for England as its central bank meets Thursday.
Inflation in the country hit 3.7%, well over the limit of 2%, and rumors
have been bubbling about a rate increase, the first since 2007. But with
unemployment around 8% and youth unemployment at 10%, England will have
to weigh the risks of fighting inflation and limiting growth. The
European Central Bank chose growth last week by keeping its interest
rates at historically low levels.
An interest rate increase
could provide more headwinds for gold.
Other emerging-market
economies with heated inflation like Russia are still hesitant to raise
rates, but are taking less aggressive and more gold friendly action.
Russia's central bank increased the amount of money banks must hold in
their reserves to take money out of circulation, a move that China tried
six times in 2010 and once in 2011.
David Morgan, founder of
Silver-Investor.com, says that gold and silver still have to
consolidate their big 2010 moves. Gold popped 26% while silver soared
80% and prices will need to sell off further. Gold's double-digit rally
Thursday wasn't a fakeout, says Morgan, but just part of the
consolidation process.
As far as a long-term
position, Morgan says he "would be a little more cautious here. You're
going to see these moves up and I think down as well." Morgan still
favors silver as the metal with more future upside.
"In the physical realm I
have never seen the silver market as tight as it is right now," Morgan
says, adding this strong demand for silver has come from retail
investors who got interested in the metal when it broke through $20
while gold was making all new and expensive highs. Institutional
investors are also leading the silver charge.
ETFS Physical Silver
added 7.2 million shares in 2010 and has only shed 207,000 shares in
2011 despite silver's violent selloff. Its more popular competitor,
iShares Silver Trust, has 333 million ounces of silver.
Silver prices were up 28 cents at $29.34 while copper was flat at
$4.57. Silver closed 2010 at $30.93 and if the metal is able to break
that level momentum buyers will mostly likely come into the market. A
substantial break higher could also trigger buy orders as traders buy
silver at a predetermined price.
Gold, on the other hand,
has big support from China, which most likely won't wane this week as
the nation celebrates its new year. The national news agency reported
Sunday that China's gold output in 2010 was 340.88 tons and the country
still had to import 209 tons in the first nine months of the year to
meet demand. Total 2010 import figures aren't available yet.
Chinese gold producers have
been looking outside the country to find more gold. China National Gold
Corp bought half of Coeur d'Alene Mine's gold concentrates from
its Kensington gold mine in Alaska.
Over the weekend reports
circulated that China is offering to lend $3 billion to Zimbabwe for
money generated from local diamond and platinum mines, which just goes
to illustrate China's thirst for precious metals.
"China's central bank is possibly ready to raise its gold reserves,"
says Gregory Marshall, author of Good as Gold. "Gold and silver
prices may be volatile this year, but the bull market is still in
place."
There have been several
reports circulating that China will buy more gold, but the country
trends to amass it in secret for fear of moving the price. If China has
been buying gold, the boost to gold will already be accounted for.
Nevertheless, the headline would be good for gold as investors can use
it as a bullish excuse to buy.
Gold mining stocks, a risky but profitable way to
buy gold, were mixed. Yamana Gold
was 0.5% lower at $11.78 while Kinross Gold was down 0.6% to
$16.85. Other large gold stocks Agnico-Eagle and Eldorado Gold
were trading at $72.21 and $16.61, respectively.
Randgold Resources
was popping 4.2% to $83.32. The company reported fourth-quarter earnings
popped 43% year over year. Gold production was up 30% quarter on quarter
at 132,099 ounces but that figure was down 10%. Growing pains at its
Lulo mine seem to be worked out as the mine's hedge commitments are
completed which should give Randgold more juice ahead. Also, Randgold's
Ivory Coast mine, Tongon, is ramping up production on its first gold
stream after work was slowed due to political unrest. Randgold also
announced a dividend increase of 18%.
The thorn in Randgold's
side is its cash cost,s which were $766 an ounce, well above its peers.
The lowest-cost gold producers boast cash costs of $330 an ounce. The
company expects to produce between 750,000 and 790,000 ounces of gold in
2011 with cash costs of $600 an ounce. Its ultimate goal is to become a
producer of 1 million ounces of gold.
Harmony Gold
was up 1.4% to $11.03 after the company said it made 10 cents a share in
its second quarter and gold production was 323,275 versus 336,650 in the
previous quarter.