By Jeffrey Bell and Rich Danker
Earlier this week Thomas Hoenig, president of the Kansas City Federal
Reserve, went out of his way to call the gold standard a "very
legitimate monetary system." In November, World Bank President Robert
Zoellick and Indiana Republican Congressman Mike Pence both called for a
serious look at using gold as the centerpiece of international monetary
reform.
The fact that a Fed leader, the highest-ranking American official in
international economics, and a potential presidential candidate are
talking up the gold standard indicates that floating money is running
out of political cover, and that the obstacles to gold replacing it are
narrowing.
The first confirmation of this was the reaction of certain economic
elites who, instead of responding with a straightforward defense of the
status quo, lobbed ad hominem attacks on those who dared to mention
gold. "I think [Zoellick] is living in the past," Edwin Truman of the
Peterson Institute for International Economics told the Financial
Times. Gold is "minor and really irrelevant," echoed Peterson
Institute Director Fred Bergsten in the same article.
The most common practical objection to the international gold
standard is political: that the slight deflationary bias it gives off
would not be tolerated by people today. Yet this conclusion overlooks
the serial price crashes that the economy has endured since gold was
demonetized in 1971.
At different times and most recently all at once, the values of
homes, stocks and other investment assets have collapsed and traumatized
the lives of ordinary Americans. Think upheaval over monetary policy was
a thing of the 19th century? In 1982 a mob of tractor-driving farmers
blockaded the Fed headquarters in Washington in protest over high
interest rates, leading Chairman Paul Volcker to hold public forums
around the country to try and explain his prolonged and painful effort
to squeeze inflation out of the economy.
The busts of the post-Bretton Woods era have been the downsides of
the bubbles. Taken together they represent the chronic problem of modern
capitalism: the excess credit that at its high point decouples
capitalist virtues from prosperity and at its low point pins ordinary
people under acute economic distress. This is the distinguishing feature
of the debt-based monetary system the world inherited by going off gold.
U.S. dollars, the world's main reserve money supply, are pieces of
paper with no independent value. It is no wonder that government,
corporate, and household debt levels have soared under this arrangement
and muddled the difference between the genuine article of economic
ingenuity and the next conduit for hot money.
The international gold standard worked as well as it did because it
automated domestic monetary decisions according to the ability of
citizens and foreign trading partners to convert currencies into gold.
The price-specie-flow mechanism, devised by David Hume to discredit
mercantilism in the 18th century, guaranteed that countries with
international payments deficits lost buying power and were brought back
into balance with the world economy through competitive price
adjustments initiated by redemptions for gold. This system, which the
U.S. was wedded to from 1879 to 1914, outperformed all other American
monetary regimes in terms of overall price stability according to John
Mueller's statistical analysis in his new book Redeeming Economics.
Various proposals to repair the paper dollar system have been
fashioned to avoid using gold, ranging from an inflation target rule as
employed by the European Central Bank, to Ben Bernanke's "constrained
discretion" approach, to recent legislation by Pence and Sen. Bob
Corker, R-Tenn., that reduces the Fed's mandate to the sole task of
assuring price stability. But attempting to transmit the gold standard's
results without gold is wishful thinking.
No central bank can manage a currency well enough to replicate the
benefits of an independent value behind it whose convertibility conveys
a clear signal about the demand for money. There are compelling reasons
that gold is this ideal monetary anchor: Its supply grows at a steady
rate that over time mirrors long-run economic growth, it cannot be
destroyed or easily lost, and it is historically identifiable as money.
Yet most sympathetic politicians, policymakers and academics shy away
from embracing gold. A common refrain is lack of voter knowledge, and
there is some truth to this. In focus groups of Democrats and
Republicans that we observed over the summer in Cincinnati, most
participants had come of age after Bretton Woods and therefore had no
living memory of gold playing a central role in monetary policy. But
they did comprehend the gold standard when it was explained to them (a
third session in Cincinnati with Tea Party activists elicited surprising
levels of historical knowledge and support).
Even if they have never heard of the price-specie-flow mechanism,
voters have an increasing sense of how the gold standard works because
there is an intuitive association of gold with money. A system that last
fully operated before World War I is more transparent and understandable
than the monetary regime we live under today, dictated by central
bankers making policy according to their macroeconomic preoccupations.
The monetary authorities themselves do not understand the impact of
their decisions on the wider world, where foreign central banks recycle
excess reserves into U.S. dollar-denominated debt that artificially
boosts asset prices and generates recurring bubbles below the radar of
inflation.
Floating money was supposed to be an experiment in alleviating the
international payments deficit when President Richard Nixon closed the
gold window in 1971. What started as something of a desperation measure
took on a life of its own and became an entrenched system with the
requisite pro-status quo establishment and line of defense.
Despite its well-documented failings, it has been bailed out time and
time again by the resilience of the American economy. Even an optimist
like Ronald Reagan would have had a hard time believing in 1971 that the
U.S. could survive a monetary crisis of the kind that would occur on his
watch.
But the tight money fix that he saw through proved to be a reprieve,
rather than an antidote, for the dysfunctionality of debt-based managed
money. Would-be reformers have tried to devise solutions designed in
large part to avoid including gold, but none have caught fire or shown
themselves to be as transparent and simple as the gold standard. The
only real debate is between paper money and gold-backed money, and it is
already getting under way at the highest levels.